Analysis of Latest Tungsten Market from China Tungsten Online
Based on decades of market experience and multi-party communication, China Tungsten Online believes that the current sharp rise in tungsten prices in the short term lacks strong support from supply and demand: tungsten miners are profitable and actively producing; smelters are trying to avoid risks and purchase raw materials on demand; alloys are cautious and try to consume inventory. In the absence of incremental demand stimulation, the overall order volume of the tungsten industry has shrunk, and market sentiment is highly sensitive.
It is recommended that all parties pay close attention to the professional information updated daily by China Tungsten Online and the long-term order quotations of major tungsten companies to be announced. This is an authoritative analysis and strong expression of attitudes of all parties on this round of price increases and trends!
China Tungsten Online believes that the basic status of the dynamic supply and demand parties and relationships in the current alloy market is:
1. When tungsten raw material prices soar and alloy companies passively issue price increase letters but have not yet implemented them, it is difficult to digest the continuous increase in raw materials in a short period of time. The original inventory is digested first, and then the market trend is determined to determine the subsequent sales direction. China Tungsten Online received inquiries from many parties this weekend and also made a lot of inquiries. The market generally believes that under the current tungsten raw material prices, cemented carbide companies are suffering from large losses. Among them, standard bars or mineral alloys are suffering from greater losses. Non-standard products have relatively larger profit margins and relatively stronger ability to resist cost squeeze.
2. Since March, cemented carbide companies have successively issued price increase notices. During the time difference between the release date and the actual implementation date, some downstream customers have already prepared goods in advance according to historical prices after receiving the price increase information. Therefore, the current orders sold at the new price have significantly decreased; some companies have taken the initiative to take fewer orders or suspend new orders.
3. Many senior and representative tungsten industry professionals believe that during the inventory digestion cycle of alloy companies, the tungsten raw material market is facing the pressure of shrinking orders and accumulated inventory. Whether the tungsten price can continue to rise, maintain the current high level, or rise and fall depends on:
(1) Whether the funds of tungsten raw material manufacturers and traders can continue to be transfused and whether they can withstand the continuous accumulation of inventory backlogs. China Tungsten Online believes that when the financing cost of hoarding in the market without self-production and digestion capacity is greater than the profit of hoarding, and the squeezing cost begins to erode the previous profit, the backlog of goods will be released for cashing out, and the price of tungsten ore will begin to stabilize, flatten or decline, and its magnitude and speed depend on the comprehensive pressure resistance of holders and smelting enterprises.
(2) The actual demand for downstream tungsten materials and alloys has shrunk moderately but has not disappeared. Therefore, when the inventory is about to be exhausted, it may be able to obtain raw material replenishment and psychological comfort of trading below the highest price during the high tungsten price correction process.
(3) Of course, just as the price surge is partly due to the tariff war and geopolitical tensions, the progress of the Sino-US tariff game, the fluctuations of domestic and foreign political and economic factors, and the swings of key mineral policies of various countries are all important reference systems that affect the price of tungsten products in addition to production costs.
(4) An obvious but often overlooked fact is that colleagues in the industry, like all Chinese people, have a clear understanding and confidence in the resilience of my country's economy in the face of wind and rain, the actual combat verification of the absolute advantage of military equipment systematization, and the solid progress and timely implementation of major Chinese and foreign projects. These are the sources of confidence in the current surge in tungsten prices.
China Tungsten Online believes that:
(1) Since the discovery of tungsten resources in my country, China has established a firm foothold in the market with cheap tungsten ore and intermediate products for a long time, and has accumulated a solid smelting and processing technology capabilities. Now is the time to make a breakthrough and gain value returns. Based on the fair market mechanism, my country's unique strategic resources should obtain their due profits as my country's international status continues to improve.
(2) In the short term, the profit-taking and appropriate shipment of tungsten raw materials and traders will make it difficult for prices to continue to rise in the short term. A slight decline to maintain stability is a benign response to the normal operation of the market supply and demand mechanism. Therefore, we suggest that you should neither expect tungsten prices to reach new highs nor be pessimistic that tungsten prices will fall sharply and return to previous lows.
Prices of Tungsten Products on May 19, 2025
Tungsten Price Trend Chart from January to May 19, 2025
